By Brendan Brown (auth.)
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Additional info for Bubbles in Credit and Currency: How Hot Markets Cool Down
Also, at the lead margin (in the cool market) are the forced sellers who are finding that the value of their wealth (including the asset in question) is falling to near (or below) the amount of their debt outstanding. The effecting of these shifts in position at the lead margin (of pessimism) depends on there being a supply of less pessimistic speculators who see buying opportunity at the now cheaper level of prices than previously. In many cases, where the given speculators have existing holdings in their portfolios which have already recorded large losses, hurdles based on soft irrationality might limit additions.
Given the heterogeneity of opinion which now becomes increasingly evident in the market-place, where should lenders position themselves – with the more optimistic or more sober members of the investing public? In principle the shareholders – actual and potential – in the relevant lending institutions could play an important role in setting the pace. If the shareholders (actual and potential) are ultra-optimistic about the implications of the initial speculative displacement, then the managers (in the lending institution) must tailor their business decisions accordingly in order to preserve their jobs.
In the earlier stages it could be characterized as still cool. After the very short temperate period which included Spring 1930 Markets Hot and Cold 37 and possibly several quarters beyond that, evidence of serious negative speculative displacement re-appeared in Summer 1931. The last stage from July 1932 to March 1933 could be described as a moderate thaw in a still freezing cold market). In a cool market, as in a warm market, there is likely to be a learning process under way, and this is what gives rise to the appearance of downtrend in asset price or a sequence (stream) of substantially negative compensation for the risk of holding the asset.
Bubbles in Credit and Currency: How Hot Markets Cool Down by Brendan Brown (auth.)